Sunday, July 13, 2014

Looking at the docket going forward there is plenty of event risk. What lies most suited for a trade idea within FX? EURUSD. So much potential for so many reasons, although not necessarily well placed from a technical perspective.

- One of the largest lenders in Portugal has their shares halted on Thursday due to accounting uncertainties and a massive selloff.
a. sovereign aspect
b. financial aspect

Yields for European markets have seen yields drop extremely low. Capital has followed this demand, therefore propping up EUR. Yields more recently have picked up.

In the docket, we have ECB President Draghi in Parliament for the Quarterly hearing, Germany investor sentiment - ZEW (JUL), Eurozone Investor Sentiment - ZEW (JUL).

Targeted LTROs do increase balance sheet, and do have a negative impact on the Euro but we're looking for something more short term. Will Draghi mention something in the pipeline?

Interest rate expectations are pulled back for the US for when the Fed's first hike will come. Yellen will be giving her semi-annual testimony to the senate committee, this could help USD as long as she stays with the status quo. Known hawks Fisher and Bullard are also speaking. If interest rate forecasts pick up then there is potential for the USD to gain significantly.

China GDP figures this week, if weaker than expected, could also help to strengthen USD.



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