Thursday, August 8, 2013

Europe?

Stronger macro data suggests that the worst of the Eurozone crisis may be behind us. Last week, Eurozone consumer confidence strengthened for the eight consecutive month, which could bode well for consumer spending in coming months.


New orders placed with German manufacturers jumped a seasonally adjusted 3.8% monthly, more than reversing May's revised 0.5% decrease. Italy's longest recession in the post- World War II era eased in the second quarter of 2013 with the gross domestic product declining 0.2% on the quarter — the slowest pace in nearly two years. Britain's industrial production was up 1.1% on the month following three consecutive months of zero growth. The 1.1% increase was the fastest since July 2012, when it grew 3.1%.

^^
This is the consensus it seems. I'm skeptical. Countries are broke, burgeoned with debt. No-one really knows whats going on. But, for sure, those who have been thick skinned in the last year have reaped the rewards. Look towards equity markets, peripheral debt. Is it too late to get in? Maybe. But this may give you some food for thought:

European equities are trading on P/B of 1.8x and 12 month forward P/E of 12.5x, 15% and 6% below 25 year averages. But maybe these averages were inflated to begin with?

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