Exciting week!
High level probability of high volatility.
S&P 500 - the outstanding performer of the week. Consistent, consecutive move that put us to a record high! 7 consecutive days! We've only seen three 7 day runs going back 6 years, although we say a remarkable quiet day on the final day of the week. This brings some concern that this isn't a steady and consistent risk positive drive. From a purely fundamental perspective, this advance is probably trouble. Obviously, the driver was the FOMC speech. The potential of expansion for the S&P has to be pretty low in my opinion, and if it rolls over (as we saw around 20/21st June when the taper concept was further put out there by the FED) then there is concern for a big downside move.
Actually if we look below, we see the comparison between the S&P 500 vs the Deutsche Bank Carry Trade Index, correlation is quite remarkable - but look at the gap that we see currently! Cause for concern? Maybe!
High level probability of high volatility.
S&P 500 - the outstanding performer of the week. Consistent, consecutive move that put us to a record high! 7 consecutive days! We've only seen three 7 day runs going back 6 years, although we say a remarkable quiet day on the final day of the week. This brings some concern that this isn't a steady and consistent risk positive drive. From a purely fundamental perspective, this advance is probably trouble. Obviously, the driver was the FOMC speech. The potential of expansion for the S&P has to be pretty low in my opinion, and if it rolls over (as we saw around 20/21st June when the taper concept was further put out there by the FED) then there is concern for a big downside move.
Actually if we look below, we see the comparison between the S&P 500 vs the Deutsche Bank Carry Trade Index, correlation is quite remarkable - but look at the gap that we see currently! Cause for concern? Maybe!
Actually if you look vs FX markets, the dollar lost a lot of ground and then recouped. The dollar index had a massive 2 day decline, and then on Friday ended up!
More to follow!
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